COVID 19 - IMPACT ON HOME VALUES BY THE EXPERTS

These are uncharted waters - it's a challenge to predict what impact the current shutdown may have on home values. 

Some buyers are hoping for major price reductions because the health crisis is straining the economy.


The price of any item, however, is determined by supply and demand, which is how many items are available in relation to how many consumers want to buy that item.  You knew that, thank you for indulging me.

In residential real estate, the measurement used to decipher that ratio is called months supply of inventory. You may recall that I talked about this in the great recession we just survived.  This terms refers to the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes if no new homes came on the market.  A normal market would have 6-7 months of inventory. Anything over seven months would be considered a buyers’ market, with downward pressure on prices. Anything under six months would indicate a sellers’ market, which would put upward pressure on prices.


Going into March of this year, the supply stood at three months – a strong seller’s market. While buyer demand has decreased in the past month, the number of homes on the market has also decreased. The recently released Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed we currently have 3.4 months of inventory. This means homes should maintain their value.

This information is consistent with the research completed by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which recently reported:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices).”

So, what are the experts saying?

Here’s a look at what some experts recently reported on the matter:

Ivy Zelman, President, Zelman & Associates

“Supported by our analysis of home price dynamics through cycles and other periods of economic and housing disruption, we expect home price appreciation to decelerate from current levels in 2020, though easily remain in positive territory year over year given the beneficial factors of record-low inventories & a historically-low interest rate environment.”

 Freddie Mac

“The fiscal stimulus provided by the CARES Act will mute the impact that the economic shock has on house prices. Additionally, forbearance and foreclosure mitigation programs will limit the fire sale contagion effect on house prices. We forecast house prices to fall 0.5 percentage points over the next four quarters. Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second, population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to housing demand. Price growth accelerates back towards a long-run trend of between 2 and 3% per year.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American

“The housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house price growth is likely to slow, but it’s unlikely to go negative.”

Houses are selling & all signs indicate that the market is steady and will remain so. 

Contact me & I will help you navigate this new virtual buying & selling world.  I've been using these virtual tools for yearsto help my folks achieve their goals, and I will use them to help you, too.

BE SAFE...BE SAVVY...CALL THE SMART REALTOR

Can I View Homes Under the New Restrictions?

Real Estate has been declared an essential service here in NC.  This means we can continue to help folks who must move to find a place to live.  Whether you are a buyer or a seller, we all need roofs over their heads & many are relocating due to jobs, family, retirement & other reasons.

Today, I'm heading out with some folks to view homes.  I have plenty of wipes, sanitizer, towels, gloves etc.  I even have extra rolls of toilet paper in the back of my car!  Owners have approved the viewings, so we are good to go.  I'll miss hugging my clients (I'm a big hugger), but we'll do an air hug.

These people need to move.  They cannot wait.  

I am here to help you in whatever way you are most comfortable.  What's your timeline?  I am up-to-date with all the latest technology & ready to keep moving forward.  I'm conducting virtual meetings with folks who prefer so we can talk about their needs & goals & be ready for when things settle down.

Some of my services:

Thinking of putting your home on the market when all this is over.?  Get a free, accurate home valuation:
What is My Home's Value?

Relocating here?  Thinking of making a change?  Curious, bored, just feel like looking at homes? 
Home Search

Want to know the latest expert opinions about current conditions & market forcasts
Triangle Property Lines

I will continue my commitment to providing you the best service & will keep you posted on how things are going.

Don't hesitate to contact me for ANY reason!

Stock Market and Home Values

With the housing crash of 2006-2008 still alive in our memories, my clients are asking if I think the current correction in the stock market is a sign that home values are also about to tumble.

After researching expert opinions, it is clear that what’s taking place today is not like what happened the last time.

The S&P 500 did fall by over fifty percent from October 2007 to March 2009, and home values did depreciate in 2007, 2008, and 2009 – but that was because that economic slowdown was mainly caused by a collapsing real estate market and a meltdown in the mortgage market.  Homes were WAY overvalued & people were using them like ATMs to buy other things.  When values fell, folks were over-extended and had no equity (available cash) when they tried to sell.

This time, the stock market correction is being caused by an outside event (the coronavirus) with no connection to the housing industry. Many experts are saying the current situation is more reminiscent of the challenges we had when the dot.com crash was immediately followed by 9/11. 

As an example, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist with Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., recently explained:

“What 9/11 has in common with what is happening today is that this shock has also generated fear, angst and anxiety among the general public. People avoided crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack was coming and are acting the same today to avoid getting sick. The same parts of the economy are under pressure ─ airlines, leisure, hospitality, restaurants, entertainment ─ consumer discretionary services in general.”

Since the current situation resembles the stock market correction in the early 2000s, let’s review what happened to home values during that time.

The S&P dropped 45% between September 2000 and October 2002. Home prices, on the other hand, appreciated nicely at the same time. That stock market correction proved not to have any negative impact on home values.

If the current situation is more like the markets in the early 2000s versus the markets during the Great Recession, home values should be minimally affected, if at all.


I'm here & working for you.  Contact me with all your questions.

Triangle NC Real Estate Market & Covid-19

My heart goes out to everyone -- especially those at home with active children, seniors, healthcare workers, and local businesses.  We are all impacted by this pandemic and I would like you all to know that I am here to help as best I can.

To that end, I'm beginning a number of blogs on how this situation is affecting our local real estate market, what it means to you and what to do (and not do)..  here are some things to note:

A recession does not mean a housing crisis.  Homes are still selling and prices are remaining stable.  Things have slowed down a bit as we all adjust to a new way of doing business and there is some uncertainty regarding jobs.  There is no reason panic.

♦  Buyers:  I'm here vigorously keeping an eye on things and am available for you with video conferencing.  Here's how that works:  If you see a home you like, let me know.  I will set up an appointment & go to the home at a time that's convenient for you.  Then, via video conference (that I will set up), you and I will go through the home together so you can see what I see and ask questions.  All from the comfort and security of your home!

♦  Thinking of selling?  I will put my professional 10 point marketing plan in action for you to get your home seen by the right buyers, at the right price & sell quickly.  My listings sell within 2 weeks of going on market.  

♦  I will be happy to run an accurate Market Analysis of the current value of your home.  This way you can decide if now is the time for you to make a change.

♦  I will connect you with expert mortgage lenders who will let you know what your financial sitution is so you can make the right decision  You must be pre-qualified in order to put in an offer anyway, so let's find your comfortable price point.

♦  Tell me what you need, what your questions are and I will reply promptly.

I've lived through so many recessions and successfully ran a real estate business during the worst housing crisis in our history.  I was here for you then and I am here for you now.

Here in NC, Real Estate is considered an Essential Business.  This Realtor is IN!
I've got lots more info coming soon -- so stay tuned for the next chapter:  How is this different from the previous housing crisis?

Look out Spring Market - Triangle NC Real Estate is Booming!

The numbers are in for January, 2020 and the year is starting out with a blast!  Look out, Triangle NC Spring Market-- things have already taken off!


For you charts & graphs fans, here is the overview in pictures:

In a nutshell:

Some contributing factors:

• Mild & pleasant weather
• Interest rates still low
• Now is the time to SELL!

Moving forward:

• This is an election year.  The political atmosphere & instability is motivating both sellers & buyers
• January is usually the lowest month.  These numbers indicate that the Spring market will BOOM & competition will heat up
• Now is the time to BUY!

Let's get ready to sell your home!  Contact me now & I will provide you with everything you need (including accurate local market value) & guide you through each step of the process so you 

MAXIMIZE profit & MINIMIZE hassle.

What, Really, is the Most Important Factor in Choosing Your Next Home?

What, really, is the most important factor in choosing your next home? 

This is the moment where the home buying motto comes into play—location, location, location.

It’s important to keep in mind that once you buy a home, the condition of your home can always change, but the area you decide to live might not.  Or it may, but not in a positive way (eg, new highway nearby). 

Usually when someone buys a home, they want to stay there for a while, which is why location is a top priority. It comes down to what you genuinely need from a location, that way you’re settling in a home completely satisfied with everything necessary to fit your personal lifestyle.

Consider the following location factors when deciding where to look:

School District

This is usually a huge factor for people with children. Actually, it is huge for everyone as good schools affect the value of your home. Of course, you want your kids to be part of a great school district and get the most out of their education. Finding the right one will be an important factor to take into account while searching for your future home.

My Service:  You will be provided with all the info on our local schools, including rankings, how our system works here in NC and links to contact them.

Rural or Urban?

If you have lived in an urban community your entire life, going off into a rural area may be a bit of a dramatic change. If you’re really trying to get more in touch with nature and live a slightly less fast-paced lifestyle, then go rural! As long as you are confident that you’ll be comfortable with your new surroundings.

My Service:  I will listen to what you are looking for & make recommendations based upon my 10 years of Real Estate expertise & knowledge of our area.

Proximity to Work

I’m not sure I have ever met someone who has said, “I love my long and early commute to work”!, which is why it’s important to make sure the area you are looking to live in is a manageable distance from your job. This way, getting to work doesn’t cause them more stress than the actual job itself.

My Service:  You will receive searches based on distance from your job or other place you specify.

Price Range

Of course you want to jump in & start searching.  This is exciting!  The first step, though, is to contact a great mortgage lender.  You really need to know how much you can afford before you start looking.  And, sellers will require a Qualification Letter with any offers, so this is the first step to take.  You may be delightfully surprised to find out you may afford more than you anticipated, but it’s important not to live too far beyond your means.

My Service:  I work with several well-respected & experienced lenders who will walk you through the process & explain everything to you.  I also give you a list of lender questions to use in your conversations.

Distance from Extended Family

Everyone’s family is different, but consider a potential home's proximity to relatives.  Whether you’re close with your family, or there are older relatives who will eventually need extra care, this is important to keep in mind, especially if you plan on settling in the location for a long period of time.

My Service:  I will provide you with info on proximity to trains, planes & automobiles.  I will show you where the major highways are.

New Highway Proximity -- If, When, Where

Our area is growing rapidly and new construction is popping up all over.  We have several new major highways in the works.  You need to know if or how this may affect your home value & your quality of life.  

My Service:  You will receive the most accurate information on nearby construction.  This includes approved & proposed major highways, retail & residential.  I keep on top of this info so you can relax.

Make the Smart Real Estate decision when selecting your next home.  You'll be very happy you did.  I'm here to help every step of the way.

Your Home End-of-Season Cleanup Guide

As the summer comes to a close, it’s a good time to do a little end of season cleanup to prepare for the fall season just around the corner.

Garden

To get ready for any fall planting to simply tidy up while you wait for spring again, clean out garden pots and dry out or preserve any, fruits, vegetables, or herbs you worked hard on all summer so they don’t go to waste.

Pool

Begin to prep your pool for close by vacuuming, cleaning filters, testing balance in the water, and safety storing pool floats and toys for the following year. Even if you plan on leaving these items out during warm fall weather, it can’t hurt to do some end of season cleaning!

Patio

Any repairs that need to be taken care of should be done before foliage begins to fall and the winter rolls around. Make sure you have a proper place to store items, or invest in furniture covers that can take on rain and weathering.

Shed

Organize your shed and put away tools, decorations, and items you no longer need out and readily available. Take this time to reorganize, and bring rakes and wheel barrels front and center so that when the leaves start to change and rougher weather heads your way you are good and ready to take on fall lawn care.

Walkways

Make repairs now while the outdoor weather is still comfortable. Once harsher conditions roll around, damage will only get worse and your willingness to get outside and make the repairs needed will probably lessen.

Weeding

Remove all decaying plants, and clean up any unwanted growth to prepare for fall plants to avoid having to deal with returning weeds in the spring.

Grass

Your lawn still needs water beyond summer months. Make sure your hose and sprinklers stay out, especially if you plan on planting or fertilizing during the fall.

Fall is a busy time of year, make sure you get organized and prep before the new season begins!

Contact me for answers to ALL your residential real estate needs.