Is Economy Recovery Already Underway?

Is the Economic Recovery Already Underway?

The Wall Street Journal just released their latest monthly Survey of Economists. In an article on the findings, they reported:

“The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.”

Clearly, the latest jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the labor market is outperforming expectations, as it revealed that 2.5 million jobs were added. Directly before the release, experts forecasted that we would lose over 8 million jobs.

A second revelation indicating the economy is already about to turn around was also somewhat unexpected. More than 9 out of 10 economists surveyed believe the recovery has already begun this quarter or will begin in the third quarter. Here are the results of the survey question asking when the recovery will begin:The survey also asked what type of recovery the economists expect.

More than 8 out of 10 believe it will be a form of a ‘V’ recovery:

• A true ‘V’ with a sharp drop and a sharp rebound
• A ‘Nike Swoosh’ with a sharp drop and a more gradual recovery, coined after the company’s logo

Some experts, possibly concerned about a second wave of COVID-19, call for a ‘W’ recovery – a double dip recession.

Others call for a ‘U’ with a prolonged bottom.

A very small percentage project the dreaded ‘L’ recovery, which is no recovery at all for the foreseeable future (think of the Great Recession).

Here’s the breakdown:

Bottom Line

The housing market is still HOT here in the Triangle NC area.  I placed two offers this weekend and both were multiple offer (5+!) situations.  Ready?  Contact me and let's get started!

Shocking News in Unemployment!

Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their May Employment Situation Summary. Leading up to the release, most experts predicted the unemployment rate would jump up to approximately 20% from the 14.7% rate announced last month.

The experts were shocked.

The Wall Street Journal put it this way:

“The May U.S. jobless rate fell to 13.3% and employers added 2.5 million jobs, blowing Wall Street expectations out of the water: Economists had forecast a loss of 8.3 million jobs and a 19.5% unemployment rate"

In addition, CNBC revealed:

“The May gain was by far the biggest one-month jobs surge in U.S. history since at least 1939.”

Here are some of the job gains by sector:


Food Service and Bartenders – 1,400,000
Construction – 464,000
Education and Health Services – 424,000
Retail – 368,000
Other Services – 272,000
Manufacturing – 225,000
Professional Services – 127,000

There’s still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers, as 21 million Americans remain unemployed. That number is down, however, from 23 million just last month. And, of the 21 million in the current report, 73% feel their layoff is temporary. This aligns with a recent Federal Reserve Bank report that showed employers felt 75% of the job losses are temporary layoffs and furloughs.

The Employment Situation Summary was definitely a pleasant surprise, and evidence that the country’s economic turnaround is underway. The data also offers a labor-market snapshot from mid-May, when the government conducted its monthly survey of households and businesses. Many states did not open for business until the second half of May. This bodes well for next month’s jobs report.

We cannot rejoice over a report that reveals millions of American families are still without work. We can, however, feel relieved that we are headed in the right direction, and much more quickly than most anticipated.

This points to a very robust home market, particularly in our area where we haven't been hit as hard as other areas.  Are you thinking of selling?  Finally taking that leap to buying?  Contact me, I'll give you all the facts to make the smart decision.

Home Sellers - How are Home Buyers Wish Lists Changing

Here we are, weeks into the coronavirus situation & halfway into the second quarter.  How has tall of this affected home buyers' Wish Lists?  Let's see what the experts say:

In a recent study by realtor.com, homeowners noted some of the main things they would change about their homes to make them more livable.

Not surprisingly, more space, an updated kitchen, and a home gym rose to the top of the list.  Here are a few other things high on the list:

- Quiet neighborhoods, outdoor spaces and proximity to grocery stores 
- Bigger houses, updated kitchens
- Some are predicting seeing a wave of folks moving from urban/suburban areas to more rural ones as more folks continue to work from home & prices remain high.

I was surprised that "home office" didn't make that list.  I'm guesing that the desire for a bigger home includes more bedrooms & one of them would be the office.
While at home, 32 percent of consumers are cleaning closets and garages, gardening, and painting walls

INTERESTIG STATISTIC:  while at home, 32 percent of consumers are cleaning closets and garages, gardening, and painting walls.

I'm being contacted by lots of buyers who are thinking of purchasing this year.  Now is a GREAT time to put your home on the market with The Smart Realtor!  I am OPEN FOR BUSINESS & ready to help you achieve your goals.

HOW TO TEST DRIVE A NEIGHBORHOOD WHILE SHELTERING IN PLACE

Staying at home doesn't mean your home search needs to come to a standstill. You can do many of these searches right from my website:   https://www.thesmartrealestateagent.com

Let’s connect today so I can help you with all of the additional steps along the way, and get ready to make your next move.

COVID 19 - IMPACT ON HOME VALUES BY THE EXPERTS

These are uncharted waters - it's a challenge to predict what impact the current shutdown may have on home values. 

Some buyers are hoping for major price reductions because the health crisis is straining the economy.


The price of any item, however, is determined by supply and demand, which is how many items are available in relation to how many consumers want to buy that item.  You knew that, thank you for indulging me.

In residential real estate, the measurement used to decipher that ratio is called months supply of inventory. You may recall that I talked about this in the great recession we just survived.  This terms refers to the number of months it would take to sell all the available homes if no new homes came on the market.  A normal market would have 6-7 months of inventory. Anything over seven months would be considered a buyers’ market, with downward pressure on prices. Anything under six months would indicate a sellers’ market, which would put upward pressure on prices.


Going into March of this year, the supply stood at three months – a strong seller’s market. While buyer demand has decreased in the past month, the number of homes on the market has also decreased. The recently released Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed we currently have 3.4 months of inventory. This means homes should maintain their value.

This information is consistent with the research completed by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which recently reported:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices).”

So, what are the experts saying?

Here’s a look at what some experts recently reported on the matter:

Ivy Zelman, President, Zelman & Associates

“Supported by our analysis of home price dynamics through cycles and other periods of economic and housing disruption, we expect home price appreciation to decelerate from current levels in 2020, though easily remain in positive territory year over year given the beneficial factors of record-low inventories & a historically-low interest rate environment.”

 Freddie Mac

“The fiscal stimulus provided by the CARES Act will mute the impact that the economic shock has on house prices. Additionally, forbearance and foreclosure mitigation programs will limit the fire sale contagion effect on house prices. We forecast house prices to fall 0.5 percentage points over the next four quarters. Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second, population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to housing demand. Price growth accelerates back towards a long-run trend of between 2 and 3% per year.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American

“The housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house price growth is likely to slow, but it’s unlikely to go negative.”

Houses are selling & all signs indicate that the market is steady and will remain so. 

Contact me & I will help you navigate this new virtual buying & selling world.  I've been using these virtual tools for yearsto help my folks achieve their goals, and I will use them to help you, too.

BE SAFE...BE SAVVY...CALL THE SMART REALTOR

Can I View Homes Under the New Restrictions?

Real Estate has been declared an essential service here in NC.  This means we can continue to help folks who must move to find a place to live.  Whether you are a buyer or a seller, we all need roofs over their heads & many are relocating due to jobs, family, retirement & other reasons.

Today, I'm heading out with some folks to view homes.  I have plenty of wipes, sanitizer, towels, gloves etc.  I even have extra rolls of toilet paper in the back of my car!  Owners have approved the viewings, so we are good to go.  I'll miss hugging my clients (I'm a big hugger), but we'll do an air hug.

These people need to move.  They cannot wait.  

I am here to help you in whatever way you are most comfortable.  What's your timeline?  I am up-to-date with all the latest technology & ready to keep moving forward.  I'm conducting virtual meetings with folks who prefer so we can talk about their needs & goals & be ready for when things settle down.

Some of my services:

Thinking of putting your home on the market when all this is over.?  Get a free, accurate home valuation:
What is My Home's Value?

Relocating here?  Thinking of making a change?  Curious, bored, just feel like looking at homes? 
Home Search

Want to know the latest expert opinions about current conditions & market forcasts
Triangle Property Lines

I will continue my commitment to providing you the best service & will keep you posted on how things are going.

Don't hesitate to contact me for ANY reason!

Stock Market and Home Values

With the housing crash of 2006-2008 still alive in our memories, my clients are asking if I think the current correction in the stock market is a sign that home values are also about to tumble.

After researching expert opinions, it is clear that what’s taking place today is not like what happened the last time.

The S&P 500 did fall by over fifty percent from October 2007 to March 2009, and home values did depreciate in 2007, 2008, and 2009 – but that was because that economic slowdown was mainly caused by a collapsing real estate market and a meltdown in the mortgage market.  Homes were WAY overvalued & people were using them like ATMs to buy other things.  When values fell, folks were over-extended and had no equity (available cash) when they tried to sell.

This time, the stock market correction is being caused by an outside event (the coronavirus) with no connection to the housing industry. Many experts are saying the current situation is more reminiscent of the challenges we had when the dot.com crash was immediately followed by 9/11. 

As an example, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist with Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., recently explained:

“What 9/11 has in common with what is happening today is that this shock has also generated fear, angst and anxiety among the general public. People avoided crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack was coming and are acting the same today to avoid getting sick. The same parts of the economy are under pressure ─ airlines, leisure, hospitality, restaurants, entertainment ─ consumer discretionary services in general.”

Since the current situation resembles the stock market correction in the early 2000s, let’s review what happened to home values during that time.

The S&P dropped 45% between September 2000 and October 2002. Home prices, on the other hand, appreciated nicely at the same time. That stock market correction proved not to have any negative impact on home values.

If the current situation is more like the markets in the early 2000s versus the markets during the Great Recession, home values should be minimally affected, if at all.


I'm here & working for you.  Contact me with all your questions.