Triangle Property Lines: 4 Home Value Predictions for 2014 and 10 Best Home Markets in the US

FOUR HOME VALUE PREDICTIONS FOR 2014 AND TEN BEST HOME MARKETS IN THE US

It's a two-fer this week! Enjoy and be sure to let me know what you think.

1. US HOME VALUES WILL INCREASE 3 PERCENT

In 2013, home values rose rapidly (roughly 5 percent nationwide and more than 20 percent in some local markets) and while these gains were beneficial at the time to pull home values up from unnaturally low levels, they were also unsustainable. Many metros saw appreciation well above historic norms, sometimes 4 or 5 times their historic appreciation levels (California and parts of Florida). This year, home value gains will slow down significantly because of higher mortgage rates, more expensive home prices, and more supply created by fewer underwater homeowners and more new construction.

-- We here in the Raleigh area will see solid 3 percent + increases in home values.

2. MORTGAGE RATES WILL REACH 5 PERCENT BY YEAR’S END

As the economy continues to improve, the Federal Reserve will start to taper its quantitative easing efforts, which, in turn, will cause mortgage rates to rise. Experts anticipate rates to exceed 5 percent for the first time since early 2010. Because affordability is still high in most areas relative to historical norms, rising rates won’t derail the housing recovery. However, some areas will be impacted by rising mortgage rates more so than other areas, as some markets are very close to their historical affordability levels and will soon become unaffordable. Higher mortgage rates will put additional pressure on these markets, particularly some of the booming California markets.

-- Any change in the mortgage rate impacts home sales. I will keep an eye on this for 2014 in our Raleigh area

3. IT WILL BE EASIER FOR BORROWERS TO GET A MORTGAGE IN 2014

Despite higher mortgage rates, actually getting a loan will become easier next year. With less demand for refinancing, lenders will have to make up lost business by competing for new buyers and loosening their lending standards a bit.

-- A welcome and long-overdue change!

4. HOMEOWNER NUMBERS WILL FALL TO THEIR LOWEST POINT IN NEARLY TWO DECADES

Homeownership rates have been falling for some time now, and we expect this decline to continue as foreclosures continue to displace homeowners and rental demand continues to be high.

- Our population in the Cary/Raleigh area is predicted to be at 2.20 percent over the next 2-year period. I don’t anticipate homeowner numbers to fall here in the Triangle

Source: Trulia and Zillow

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