2012 Third Quarter Triangle Real Estate Summary
The numbers are out. I've got the explanation and breakdown for you right here...
Interest rates
The national average for the following products comparing September 2012 with September 2011 are as follows;
· 15 year fixed rate mortgage is 3% v 3.6%
· 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 3.8% v 4.4%
· 1 year ARM is 2.98% v 3.2%.
Ø Why this is important: WOW! Can you believe it?? There is no plac for them to go but up!
Jobs
Based upon August 2012 figures released by the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, the combined workforce in the Durham and Raleigh/Cary Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was 846,108. This was a 3.6% increase from the workforce seen at the end of August 2011. The unemployment rate in the MSA decreased to 7.9% from 9.1%.
Ø Why this is important: Without job security, people are not confident to leave a rental or other living situation (Mom’s basement??) and purchase a home
Home Inventory
· There were 8,825 active listings at quarter’s end within the four main counties – Durham, Johnson, Orange, Wake. This was a decrease of 21% compared to 3Q/11 inventory levels. Translation: homes on the market have sold!
· New home inventory decreased 23% and re-sale inventory decreased 20%. Translation: less homes on the market competing for buyers means prices may increase.
· There were 7,389 new listings entered into the system during the quarter. This was a 7% increase compared to new listings entered into the system during 3Q/11. Translation: sellers have more confidence in the market
· Listings where the status was changed from active to withdrawn decreased by 26% Translation: Sellers withdraw properties that don’t sell. Less withdrawals means more homes have sold.
· Listings where the status was changed from active to expired decreased by 36%. Translation: Sellers allow their properties to expire because it has not sold & they have lost confidence. Less expired properties demonstrates more confidence.
Ø Why this is important: Keeping an eye on the inventory of available homes and their history gives an accurate view into the true status of the residential home market.
Distressed Inventory
· Listings that were marked with a category related to financial issues (eg, short sale, foreclosure) accounted for 9% of quarter end inventory, the same as seen at quarter end, 2011.
· The total number of distressed listings on the market decreased 20% compared to those on the market at the end of 3Q/11
Ø Why this is important: The glut of foreclosures that the naysayers said would happen (and I accurately predicted would NOT happen in my blog) are non-existent. While some sellers are still struggling, these homes are selling and numbers are going down.
Home Showings
There were 164,681 showings during the quarter. This was a 12% increase compared to 3Q/11 showings.
Ø Why this is important: Folks are out looking & buying!
Pending Sales
· There were 5,453 listings during the quarter with a status changed to pending. This was an increase of 24% compared to 3Q/11. Translation: Active to pending status indicates an offer has been received & is in the initial review and due diligence phase.
· There were 2,949 listings with a status change to contingent. This was an increase of 34% compared to 3Q/11. Translation: Active to contingent status indicates that most of the seller’s and buyer’s requirements have been met and there is a very good chance the home will close.
· More listings are going from active to contingent to closed and not using the pending status. Translation: in most cases the buyer is very well qualified (possibly cash) and both are confident home will close.
· Total pending and contingent listings were up 27% compared to 3Q/11. Translation: Buyers are more confident of the ability to purchase and lenders are becoming more responsive
Ø Why this is important: Buyers are buying and sellers have a good understanding of current home market values
Closed Sales
· There were 5,559 closed sales within the four county market during the quarter. This was an increase of 24% compared to 3Q/11.
· Financial concessions were paid in 54% of closed transactions and 16% of the closings were financed as cash.
· The average days on market (LADOM) was 111, compared to 126 during 3Q/11.
· The average sales price during the quarter was $239,000, a 1% increase compared to the average in 3Q/11.
· The average sales price of a re-sale was $227,000, an increase of 2% compared to 3Q/11.
Ø Why this is important: Sales are up, prices are up, homes are selling more quickly, and more sellers are offering some sort of financial or other concession to buyers.
Months of Supply
The current supply of all housing within the four main counties based upon third quarter closings is 5 months, a decrease from the 7 month supply at the end of 3Q/11. 12% of price brackets analyzed had an under supply of housing and 31% had an over supply.
Ø Why this is important: Because, come on now…. You all remember I said that a balanced market typically means a 6 month supply of homes, right? As we are now down to a 5 month supply, this indicates that we are starting to move toward a buyer’s market. Sellers beware!
Sales to Original List Price
Homes that were priced correctly sold at 97% of asking price and within 63 days. Homes that were overpriced sold for an average of 89% of original price and took 179 days to sell.
Ø Why this is important: Price your home correctly or be prepared for disappointment in your final price. Also, it will take almost 3 times longer to sell! Ouch!
Is now the right time for you to move or relocate to Apex, Cary, Raleigh, Holly Springs, Fuquay Varina, or anywhere in our lovely Triangle, North Carolina area? Give me a call and let's find out!
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Source: Triangle Multiple Listing Service
